- If BBB Cuts Federal $ to NY, 36% Say Reduce Services, 24%, Increase Taxes; Voters Oppose NY Spending $3B to Continue Providing Healthcare to Immigrants in NY Illegally; 69% of NYers Concerned (43% Very) About Rural Hospital Closures
- Trump Fav & Job Ratings Up a Bit, Still Underwater; Voters Say He’s Not Succeeding Making Necessities More Affordable, Ending Wars, Protecting Rights of All
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul’s job approval and favorability ratings are up a little from June, but her lead in a potential gubernatorial race against Rep. Elise Stefanik fell to 14 points, 45-31%, down from a 23-point lead in June, 47-24%, according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today. Nearly half of voters say they are at least somewhat familiar with Stefanik, but only 29% say she has the right experience to be governor, and by 49-37%, they say if she was elected governor, it would be bad for New York.
If the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill reduces federal funds to New York, 36% of voters want the state to address it more by reducing state services, compared to 24% who want to see state taxes raised, and 16% who volunteered that the state should do both. By 51-34%, voters are opposed to the state spending $3 billion to continue providing health care to immigrants illegally in New York. More than two-thirds of voters say they are very (43%) or somewhat (26%) concerned that the BBB will result in rural hospitals in New York closing.
Hochul has a 42-44% favorability rating; it was 42-47% in June. Her job approval rating is 53-42%, up from 50-45% in June. Stefanik’s favorability rating is 27-32%, with 41% saying they don’t know or never heard of her.
“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’ ” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “More than two-thirds of Democrats are with Hochul and three-quarters of Republicans are with Stefanik. Independents are closely divided, leaning toward Stefanik, after favoring Hochul in June.
“New York City voters remain solidly behind Hochul, however downstate suburban voters went from favoring Hochul by 11 points in June to narrowly favoring Stefanik now, and upstate voters had given Hochul a 12-point lead, and are now virtually evenly divided,” Greenberg said.
“Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters – either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik,” Greenberg said. “Republicans think she has the right experience to be governor, Democrats don’t, and independents are closely divided. More than three-quarters of Republicans think it would be good for New York if Stefanik ran and won, while more than two-thirds of Democrats and a plurality of independents think it would be bad for the state.”
Voters on BBB: ‘No’ to $3B for Healthcare for Immigrants in NY Illegally; Concerned About Rural Hospitals
“More than three-quarters of Democrats, nearly two-thirds of independents and half of Republicans are very or somewhat concerned that cuts in the BBB will force many rural hospitals in New York to close, despite bill supporters of the BBB saying it includes additional funding to avoid rural hospital closures,” Greenberg said. “At least 63% of voters from every region of the state are concerned about closures.
“With cuts in the BBB eliminating federal Medicaid funding for immigrants in New York illegally, more than two-thirds of Republicans and nearly two-thirds of independents are opposed to the state spending $3 billion to continue providing healthcare to those immigrants. Only a plurality of Democrats support the state continuing to provide them with healthcare,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, voters under 35 support continuing to provide healthcare, but a strong majority of voters 55 and older oppose it.
Close the state budget gap due to the BBB by mostly cutting services or raising taxes? A majority of Republicans and a plurality of independents say cut services. A plurality of Democrats says raise taxes,” Greenberg said. “With the state budget a long way away, neither side has yet made a convincing argument to voters on how to close any potential gap from federal funding cuts in the BBB.”
Voters Support Several State Proposals; Closely Divided on Reapportionment Constitutional Amendment
“Voters are divided on a constitutional amendment to allow mid-decade redistricting in New York if other states do it. A plurality of Democrats supports it. Pluralities of Republicans and independents oppose it,” Greenberg said.
“There is overwhelming bipartisan support for requiring retail establishments to accept cash, providing funding to police departments for child care for officers, and restricting smartphone use in schools,” Greenberg said. “On restricting smartphones in schools, support is down from May – when it was supported 67-16%. Support is still strong across the political and geographic spectrum.
“Developing a zero-emission nuclear power plant in New York has majority or plurality support from Democrats, Republicans, independents, upstaters and downstaters,” Greenberg said. Democrats overwhelmingly support a law allowing New York doctors to prescribe abortion medication to out-of-state patients, while only being known to the patient and pharmacy. It is supported by a plurality of independents and opposed by Republicans two-to-one.
Trump Ratings Up a Bit; Voters Say He’s Not Succeeding on Affordability, Ending Wars & Other Issues
President Donald Trump has a 37-56% favorability rating, compared to 37-60% in June. His job approval rating stands at 41-58%, from 39-59% in June.
“More than two-thirds of Republicans think Trump is succeeding improving America’s standing in the world, protecting the rights of all Americans, and ensuring Americans feel safer. But at least three-quarters of Democrats and about half of independents say he is not succeeding,” Greenberg said. “Overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents say Trump is not succeeding making necessities more affordable and ending wars around the world. And about one-quarter of Republicans also say he’s not succeeding on these issues.”
NYC Registered Voters Give Mamdani 19-Point Lead Over Cuomo, 44-25%, Sliwa Third & Adams Fourth
Among the 39% of registered (not likely) voters from New York City included in this poll, 44% say they support Democrat Zohran Mamdani, compared to 25% who support independent Andrew Cuomo, 12% for Republican Curtis Sliwa and 7% for independent incumbent Mayor Eric Adams.
“While City Democrats favor Mamdani over Cuomo 53-32%, with single digits for the other two, more than two-thirds of City Republicans support Sliwa. City independent voters are more closely divided, with 30% supporting Mamdani and 20% supporting Adams,” Greenberg said. “City voters under 35 are overwhelmingly supporting Mamdani, as are a plurality of voters 35-54, however, voters 55 and older back Cuomo over Mamdani, 38-32%.”
“Mamdani, included in the Siena poll for the first time, has a 46-32% favorability rating with New York City voters and a negative 28-37% favorability rating among voters statewide,” Greenberg said. “Cuomo has an underwater favorability rating with City voters, 37-54%, and an even worse 29-61% favorability rating with statewide voters, the worst ever favorability rating for Cuomo in a Siena poll. In fact, among Democrats statewide, Cuomo’s favorability rating is 36-56%, down from 51-39% in March.
Adams is also underwater with voters in the City, 30-58%, statewide 22-51%, and among Democrats statewide 22-59%,” Greenberg said. “Sliwa has a 26-30% statewide favorability rating, and 30-42% in the City.”
Odds & Ends
- Senator Chuck Schumer has his lowest ever favorability rating in a Siena poll (dating to February 2005),
- 38-50%, down from 41-47% in June. Among Democrats his favorability rating is 49-39%, down from
- 55-35% in June. For the first time ever, he is underwater with New York City voters, 39-46%.
- Since her re-election last year, voters have soured on Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Her favorability rating stands at 36-38%, down from 44-26% last October (among likely 2024 voters). While a plurality of Democrats views her favorably, pluralities of Republicans and independents view her unfavorably.
- Voters are still pessimistic about the direction of the state, with 41% saying the state is on the right track and 45% saying the state is headed in the wrong direction. It is a noticeable improvement, however, from June when it was 37-50%. There was no similar improvement from voters on the direction of the country. By a
- 33-59% margin, voters say the US is headed in the wrong direction, little changed from 35-58% in June.
- Voters have an unfavorable view of both Democrats in Congress (42-49%; it was 45-48% in June) and Republicans in Congress (34-58%; it was 34-56% in June).
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This Siena Poll was conducted August 4-7, 2025, among 813 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 813 respondents, 513 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (158 completed via text to web) and 300 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes was weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York State’s population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of party registration using data from the New York State Board of Elections. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
