- Hochul Leads Blakeman by 20 Points, 51-31%, Down from January’s 26 Points, 54-28%
- Six Quotes from Hochul and Blakeman – Read to Voters Without Attributing the Quotes to Either Candidate – All Garner Overwhelming, Bipartisan Support
- Trump Favorability & Approval Ratings Edge Up Slightly; Republicans Give Trump High Marks on Five Issues, Although Closely Divided on Lowering Costs; Independents Give Him Low Marks on Five Issues, Closely Divide on Securing Borders; Democrats Pan Trump on Everything
Loudonville, NY. By a 54-29% margin, New York State voters support the Governor and Legislature allowing New York City to raise personal income taxes on City residents earning at least $1 million. New York City voters, 62-21%, and Democrats, 72-13%, overwhelmingly support it. The proposal from Mayor Zohran Mamdani has more tepid support from the downstate suburbs, 50-32%, and upstate, 48-35%, while independents lean toward opposition, 40-37%, and Republicans oppose 51-36%, according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today.
Governor Kathy Hochul – whose favorability rating dropped a few points but narrowly remains in positive territory – continues to lead Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, still largely unknown to voters statewide, by 20 points, 51-31%, from 26 points, 54-28%, in January. On six quotes read to voters without attribution – three Hochul quotes and three Blakeman quotes – voters, by wide, bipartisan majorities agree with each of them.
“As we enter budget month for the state, neither Hochul nor either house of the Legislature has indicated public support for Mamdani’s request to allow New York City to raise personal income taxes on City residents earning at least $1 million. Yet, the public is on Mamdani’s side, as the proposal is supported 54-29% among all voters statewide, and it has support from 62% of City voters and 72% of statewide Democrats,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “While Republicans disagree, voters overall prefer New York City raise income taxes on its millionaires, rather than raise property taxes on all New York City property owners, Mamdani’s stated position.”
Hochul’s favorability rating is 46-42%, down a little from 49-40% in January. Her job approval rating is 53-41%, virtually unchanged from 54-41% in January. Blakeman has a 21-18% favorability rating, up a little from 18-20% in January. Still, 61% of New Yorkers have either never heard of Blakeman or have no opinion about him. Mamdani has a 47-35% favorability rating, down a little from 48-32% in January.
“Democrats still outnumber Republicans more than two-to-one, so it’s not surprising to see Hochul continue to maintain a large double digit lead over Blakeman, although it’s tightened a little bit in the last month,” Greenberg said. “What was a 25-point lead in December and a 26-point lead in January is now a 20-point lead, largely due to Republicans coming home to Blakeman, and the race tightening among men – Hochul had led by 22 points and now leads by four – and in the downstate suburbs, where she led by 14 points and now leads by two points.
“Hochul’s favorability rating fell a few points from its high in January but is still in positive territory, albeit not by very much. Her job approval rating barely moved and remains positive – well, at least among Democrats,” Greenberg said. “As for Blakeman, there are less than 250 days until election day and he has a lot of voters to educate. Only two in five voters know enough about him to say whether they view him favorably or unfavorably – and they’re closely divided. The majority, 61%, have either never heard of Blakeman or don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.”
Reps Like What Hochul Says & Dems Like What Blakeman Says – If They Don’t Know Who Said It
Respondents were asked whether they mostly agreed or disagreed with each of six quotes – three by Hochul and three by Blakeman – although they were not told who authored the quote. The three Hochul quotes:
- Q.17 “It is time that we cut the red tape that too often slows down projects and let communities build, so we can offer all New Yorkers the more affordable and livable state that they deserve.”
- Q.19 “You can make historic investments without raising income taxes, without mortgaging the next generations, and without losing sight of what people can afford.”
- Q.21 “When individuals enter this country illegally and commit crimes, I want them arrested and tried. If they’re convicted, they must be imprisoned and deported.”
The three Blakeman quotes:
- Q.18 Talking about the economy, one state leader said, “It’s grocery bills, utility costs, rent, property taxes, and paychecks that don’t go far enough. Families don’t need more rhetoric — they need results.”
- Q.20 “Hardworking New Yorkers shouldn’t have to choose between heating their home and putting food on the table. We need to take advantage of the natural resources we have and lower utility costs.”
- Q.22 “I will stand with our police, not against them. I will fight to keep violent criminals and cop-killers behind bars, because the safety of our children and neighborhoods demands it.”
“Between 71% and 79% of voters agreed with each of the three Hochul quotes, including between 68% and 90% of Republicans, while between 77% and 88% of all voters agreed with each of the three Blakeman quotes, including between 67% and 87% of Democrats. Between 70% and 90% of independents agreed with all six quotes,” Greenberg said.
“Maybe – just maybe – voters don’t really disagree as much as it appears that they do. Here we have three quotes from the Governor – who Republicans call the worst governor in America – that Republicans agree with. And we have three quotes from her challenger – said by many Democrats to be another MAGA Republican – that Democrats agree with,” Greenberg said. “Maybe the divisions in our politics are more related to the ideological and media silos that voters place themselves in, rather than the actual words and promises from the candidates.”
Trump Ratings Up a Little; Gets Middling Grade on Securing Border; Worst Grade on Lowering Costs
President Donald Trump has a 35-60% favorability rating, up a little from 33-63% in January. His job approval rating is 36-61%, up a little from 34-63% in January.
“Down a few points one month, up a few points the next, that has described Trump’s favorability rating over the last decade. His best favorability rating came in December 2016, 41-53%, after he was first elected but hadn’t taken office the first time. His next best favorability rating was February 2025, 41-56%, just after assuming office the second time,” Greenberg said. “In this first year of his second term, Trump’s favorability fell net 10 points from February 2025 to today, down six points on the good side and up four points on the bad side. “While voters are evenly divided on grading Trump on securing the country’s borders – 49% say he’s done an excellent or good job, compared to 49% who say he’s done only a fair or poor job – Trump only gets between 30% and 34% of voters grading him excellent or good on defending the Constitution, managing trade and tariff policies, enhancing America’s reputation abroad, and creating a responsible energy policy,” Greenberg said. “And worst of all for Trump is the grade he gets from New Yorkers on lowering the cost of living. Only 8% give him an excellent grade and 11% good, while 17% say fair and a whopping 60% say poor. Only 49% of Republicans give him a positive grade, while 91% of Democrats and 76% of independents give him a negative grade.”
Odds & Ends
- Democrats still lead on the generic congressional ballot, 53-32%, but it’s tightened a little since January when Democrats had a 27-point lead, 56-29%. 81% of Democrats support a Democrat for Congress, 86% of Republicans support a Republican, and independents narrowly favor Democrats, 38-31%, down from 46-29%.
- Support has grown for ‘deporting immigrants illegally living in the US,’ from 43-35% in January, to 49-29% today. It is supported by 85% of Republicans, up from 70%, and 56% of independents, up from 45%. It still only has support from 30% of Democrats, little changed from 29% in January.
- New York’s legislative leaders remain largely unknown to voters. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins has a 17-13% favorability rating (70% either never heard of her or don’t know enough to have an opinion), similar to Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie’s 13-11% rating (75% don’t know/no opinion).
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This Siena Poll was conducted February 23-26, 2026, among 805 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 805 respondents, 530 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (161 completed via text to web) and 275 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Data from collection modes was statistically adjusted by age, party by region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. The Siena Research Institute, a division of ReconMR, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
