- Hochul Lead Over Stefanik Swells to 25 Points, 52-27%; First Time Hochul Over 50%
- About 1/3 of Voters Say Crime in State Has Gotten Worse in Last Year; It was 54% in December 2024; Currently About ¼ Say Crime Has Gotten Worse in Their Community
- Voters Say Trump ‘Should Not’ Deploy National Guard Troops to New York City, 57-37%
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul’s job approval and favorability ratings are both up a little from last month, and her favorability rating, 45-42% (42-44% in August), is now the best it’s been since January 2024, according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today.
A majority or plurality of voters believe Hochul works hard, demonstrates honesty, gets things done, provides decisive leadership, and cares about people. Four of the five are up significantly from June 2024 (this is first time ‘get things done’ was asked). Hochul (D) now leads Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) 52-27%, in a gubernatorial matchup, up from 45-31% last month, and the first time Hochul has support from more than 50% of voters.
Over the last year, 23% of voters say crime in the state has gotten better, 38% say it’s stayed about the same, and 35% say it’s gotten worse. In December 2024, it was 12% better, 30% the same, and 54% worse. In their community, 19% of voters now say crime has gotten better, 52% the same, and 27% worse, compared to 9-53-35% in December 2024. Still, 54% are very or somewhat concerned they’ll be a crime victim, compared to 45% who say they’re not very or not at all concerned, down a little from December, when it was 58-41%.
“While a 45-42% favorability rating for a Democratic governor in a state where nearly half the voters are Democrats may not sound like a major accomplishment, in the case of Governor Hochul, it’s the first time her favorability rating has been positive since April, and it is her best favorability rating since January 2024,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Additionally, her 54-40% job approval rating, up slightly from 53-42% in August, is the best job approval rating Hochul has gotten from voters since it was 56-40% in February 2023.
“Hochul gets strong marks from fellow Democrats – 61% view her favorably and 72% approve of the job she’s doing – and the opposite from Republicans, 71% view her unfavorably and 73% disapprove of the job she’s doing. Not surprisingly, independents are in the middle – a plurality, 48%, view her unfavorably and they are virtually evenly divided on her job approval rating, 47-46%,” Greenberg said. “Currently, only 37% of voters say they want to re-elect her; 51% would prefer ‘someone else,’ from 35-53% last month.”
“Between 48-54% of all voters say Hochul works hard for people, demonstrates honesty, gets things done for New Yorkers, cares about people like them and provides decisive leadership. That’s up from June 2024, when between 34-42% voters said she had those qualities. Then, pluralities said Hochul did not care about people like them or provide decisive leadership,” Greenberg said. “While at least 62% of Republicans continue to say she doesn’t possess any of these qualities, Democrats, between 61-70%, say she has them all, up from 51-60%.”
Hochul Expands Early Lead Over Stefanik to 25 Points, 52-27%
“With 10 months until any potential gubernatorial primaries and 14 months until the general election, Hochul has opened up a 25-point lead, 52-27%, over Stefanik. Hochul now has the support of 75% of Democrats, up from 68% last month, and Stefanik’s support from Republicans fell to 68%, down from 75%,” Greenberg said. “Independent voters, who had been leaning toward Stefanik last month, are now with Hochul 43-25%.
“Stefanik – with a 21-34% favorability rating, down from 27-32% in August – trails among men by 11 points, while women support Hochul by 36 points, 58-22%,” Greenberg said. “Hochul leads in New York City (41 points), the downstate suburbs (23 points) and upstate (nine points). She also leads with white voters, 46-35%, Black voters, 73-6%, and Latino voters, 65-19%.
Majority No Longer Says Crime Has Gotten Worse in the Last Year Across New York
“Last year – in December and August – voters said that both crime in the state and their community had gotten worse over the previous year. Today, a small plurality of voters thinks that over the last year crime has stayed about the same statewide, and a majority says crime in their community has stayed about the same,” Greenberg said.
“ ‘A glass half full person’ might say ‘61% of voters think crime in the state has gotten better or stayed the same,’ and 71% might say the same about their community. ‘A glass half empty person’ might say that ‘73% say crime in the state has stayed the same or gotten worse,’ and 79% might say that about their community,” Greenberg said. “Either way, far fewer New Yorkers now think crime has gotten worse compared to how they felt last year.
“Concern about being a victim of crime has not fallen quite as dramatically. A majority of New Yorkers continues to be concerned that they could be a crime victim, although only 15% are very concerned, down from 24% in December 2024,” Greenberg said. “New York City residents, 58%, are most concerned about being a crime victim, but about half of those who live outside the City are also concerned that it could be them.”
Trump ‘Should Not’ Deploy National Guard Troops to NYC
“New Yorkers say President Donald Trump should not deploy National Guard troops to New York City, 57-37%, although three-quarters of Republicans think he should,” Greenberg said. “City voters oppose it 61-32%, and it is opposed by 57% of downstate suburbanites and 53% of upstaters. Women oppose it two-to-one, while men narrowly oppose it, 52-46%. It is opposed by 52% of white voters and two-thirds of Black and Latino voters.”
Big Beautiful Bill’s Medicaid Changes Threaten Necessary Programs; Not Just Cut Waste, Fraud and Abuse
“Voters were told Trump says the only things being cut from Medicaid in the Big Beautiful Bill are waste, fraud and abuse, and that opponents say necessary healthcare programs will be threatened. Voters overwhelmingly side with opponents, as 63% say necessary programs will be threatened, and 27% say only waste, fraud and abuse are being cut. Republicans side with the President 58-27%, however, 78% of Democrats and 65% of independents say necessary healthcare programs are being threatened,” Greenberg said.
Trump Favorability Lowest in 2 Years; Job Approval Rating Worst Ever; Specific Approval Ratings Low
Trump has a 34-61% favorability rating, down from 37-56% in August. His job approval rating stands at 37-62%, down from 41-58% last month. “Trump has his lowest favorability rating since September 2023, when it was 33-61%,” Greenberg said. “And for the first time since he became the 47th President, more than six in 10 voters disapproves of the job he’s doing as president, including 52% who strongly disapprove. Only 22% strongly approve.”
“On six specific issues – the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the cost of living, public health, the Epstein files, and the New York City mayoral race – there’s not one where Trump scores better than 32% approval,” Greenberg said.
“About two-thirds of Republicans approve of the job Trump is doing on the two wars, the cost of living and public health. They also support him on the mayoral race (57%) and Epstein files (52%) but by significantly lower numbers,” Greenberg said. “At least 74% of Democrats disapprove on each of the issues, with 84% disapproving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living. And at least 58% of independents disapprove of the job Trump’s doing on each.”
Odds & Ends
- Only 28% think Trump’s actions – taken all together – will make America great, compared to more than twice that number, 59% who think he will not. That’s down from 33-54% in August.
- New Yorkers are not enamored with the leaders of Congress, even though two of the four are from New York. Senator (and Senate Minority Leader) Chuck Schumer has a 42-45% favorability rating, up from 38-50% in August, his all time low in a Siena Poll. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has a 34-31% favorability rating, down from 38-27% in February. Speaker Mike Johnson has a 23-34% favorability rating, little changed from 22-33% in December 2024. Senate Majority Leader John Thune makes his Siena Poll debut with a 12-25% favorability rating.
- Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has a 35-56% favorability rating, his worst ever in a Siena Poll, down from 37-47% in August 2024, and 41-37% in October 2023.
- Currently, 42% of voters think New York is on the right track, while 41% say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Up a little from 41-45% last month. But it is the first time this measure has been positive – albeit by a single point – since October 2021, two months after Hochul took office, when it was 44-43%.
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This Siena Poll was conducted September 8-10, 2025, among 802 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 802 respondents, 504 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (189 completed via text to web) and 298 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes was weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York State’s population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of party registration using data from the New York State Board of Elections. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
