- Nearly 2/3 of NYS Voters Support Universal Free Childcare For Infants Through Pre-K, Paid for by Increased Taxes on NYers Earning More than $1M; NYC Voters Support Eliminating Bus Fares – Paid for by Increased Taxes on City Residents Earning More Than $1M – By a Narrower 50-41%
- Two-thirds of NYC Voters and a Small Plurality of Voters From Outside NYC Think Mamdani’s Election Will Be Good for NYC; Mamdani Favorability Rating Up to 46-31%
- Majorities Between 58-65% Say Trump Administration Has Gone ‘Too Far’ on ICE Agents on City Streets, Increased Tariffs, Prosecuting Critics & Bombing Alleged Venezuelan Drug Boats
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul holds double-digit leads over both Rep. Elise Stefanik (Hochul leads 49-30%, with 20% undecided) and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (50-25%, 21% undecided), according to a new Siena Poll of New York State registered voters released today. Voters support, 65-27%, universal free childcare for infants through pre-K, paid for by increased taxes on New York taxpayers earning more than $1 million. By a narrower 50-41% New York City voters support eliminating bus fares, paid for by increased taxes on City taxpayers earning more than $1 million.
New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s 46-31% statewide favorability rating is up from 40-40% last month, and stands at 61-23% in New York City, up from 55-31% in November. By a 49-32% margin, up from 45-39% last month, voters statewide think his election will be good for New York City. And when looking at City voters alone, they say his election is good for the City, 66-25%, up from last month’s 57-26%.
“Closing out 2025 – six months from the primaries and 11 months till the general election – Hochul maintains a solid 19-point lead over Stefanik, with one in five voters being undecided, and currently has a larger 25-point lead over recent entrant Blakeman,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “Hochul has the support of more than three-quarters of Democrats against either Republican. Stefanik leads among Republicans 82-7%, while Blakeman’s lead is 73-7%. With independents, Hochul leads Blakeman by 10 points and Stefanik by seven points.”
Hochul’s 43-41% favorability rating is a little better than November’s 43-45%. Her job approval rating is also four points better than last month, 52-39%, from 52-43%. Stefanik’s favorability rating is 22-33%, from 28-36% in November. Blakeman has a 13-17% favorability rating, similar to 16-17% in June. Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado has a 17-15% favorability rating, from 20-20% last month.
Among registered Democrats, Hochul leads Delgado 56-13% (56-16% last month). With registered Republicans, Stefanik leads Blakeman 48-17%. In June, Stefanik, 35%, led Rep. Michael Lawler, 18%, and Blakeman, 7%.
“Hochul’s favorability rating tilts slightly favorable – only the third in positive territory this year – but she has still yet to crack 50% favorability in a state where 48% of the enrolled voters are Democrats,” Greenberg said. “At the same time, Stefanik is underwater among voters who are familiar enough to have an opinion about her but is still largely unknown to more than two in five voters. For Blakeman and Delgado, the need to become more known to voters becomes a pressing issue six months before the primaries, with each of them unfamiliar to more than two-thirds of all voters, and both of them unfamiliar to a majority of voters in their respective parties.”
Expectations for Hochul, Stefanik Largely Follow Party Lines, As Do Traits Voters See in the Candidates
“On issues, voters have higher expectations for Hochul on ensuring access to healthcare and keeping New Yorkers safe. Voters don’t think either Hochul or Stefanik will succeed in making life more affordable,” Greenberg said. “Stefanik stands out with voters for being decisive, while she is either breakeven or in negative territory on the other characteristics. Hochul scores well with voters on being honest, decisive and empathetic, however, a plurality finds her to be not very or not at all inspiring.”
Strong Support for Free Universal Childcare Statewide; In NYC, Tepid Support for Free Buses
“While a small majority of Republicans opposes free universal childcare, paid for by increasing taxes on those New Yorkers earning more than $1 million, it is supported by four in five Democrats, and independents support it two-to-one,” Greenberg said. “It is supported upstate and downstate, and other than Republicans and conservatives, it is supported by a majority – often an overwhelming majority – of every demographic group.
“While a small majority of New York City voters say there should be no fares on New York City buses – paid for by increasing taxes on those in the City earning $1 million – the partisan divide is fairly narrow. Democrats support it 54-39%, while Republicans oppose it 58-39%, and independents tilting toward support, 46-41%,” Greenberg said. “The bigger divide on this issue is age; voters under 35 support it 61-26%, while those 55 and older oppose it 49-42%.”
New Yorkers – Particularly those from NYC – Are Warming Up to Mayor-elect Mamdani
“Enjoy the honeymoon, Mayor-elect Mamdani. Two-thirds of Democrats across the state view him favorably. Independent voters are now leaning favorably by six points, while they were six points on the unfavorable side in November. And while he’s viewed favorably in New York City, 61-23%, voters outside the City, who were decidedly negative toward him last month, are now close to breakeven,” Greenberg said.
“Two-thirds of City voters and a small plurality of voters outside the Big Apple say Mamdani’s election will be good for New York City. Two-thirds of Democrats say his election is good and two-thirds of Republicans say it is bad. Independent voters, 43-30%, up from 38-40% last month, now say it will be good,” Greenberg said. “Even after the friendly Oval Office meeting between the Mayor-elect and President Trump last month, a plurality of voters still thinks Mamdani and Trump will not work together to improve the quality of life for New Yorkers, 47-29%. However, that’s improved from November’s 67-14%. The significant movement on that question was across the board, from Democrats, Republicans, independents, as well as voters both inside and outside the City.”
Strong Majority of Voters Say Each of Four Actions by Trump Administration Have Gone ‘Too Far’
“Between 58% and 65% of voters say Trump Administration actions – from deploying ICE agent in US cities, to increased tariffs, to prosecuting political enemies, and bombing boats off of Venezuela – have gone too far,” Greenberg said. “While Democrats and independents say he’s gone too far on all four, Republicans feel very differently.”
“A majority of Republicans think Trump’s actions have been just about right on three of the four issues. But while only a plurality of Republicans, 40%, say Trump’s actions on prosecuting those critical of him have been just about right,” Greenberg said. “Interestingly, 31% of Republicans – compared to 12% of independents and 5% of Democrats – say he has not gone far enough in prosecuting his critics.”
Trump has a 32-62% favorability rating, down a little from 35-61% in November. His job approval rating, 34-62%, is also down a little from last month’s 37-61%.
Odds & Ends
- When asked whether New York State is doing better than most other states, keeping pace, or falling behind most other states, nearly half, 45%, say New York is falling behind, while 30% say we are keeping pace and 19% say we’re doing better. A large majority of Republicans, a large plurality of independents, and even a narrow plurality of Democrats say New York is falling behind other states.
- Regardless of whether they agree or disagree with Trump on some or all of his decisions, by a 57-38% margin, voters say Trump does not have a plan to make America great again. Republicans overwhelmingly think he has a plan, 84-12%, but 79% of Democrats and 53% of independents say he does not.
- For only the second time this year, a narrow plurality of voters thinks New York State is on the right track, rather than headed in the wrong direction, 44-41%, up from 39-45% in November. There was no movement on voters’ view on the direction of the country, which remains two-to-one negative. Voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, 63-31%, nearly identical to 62-30% last month.
- Voters continue to strongly support increasing taxes on the wealthiest 5% of New Yorkers, 58-35%, from 60-32% in November. It’s strongly supported by Dems, supported by inds, and opposed by Reps.
- New York’s senior Senator, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s favorability rating remains decidedly underwater, 36-49%, however, that is a significant improvement from 32-55% last month.
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This Siena Poll was conducted December 8-12, 2025, among 801 NYS Registered Voters. Of the 801 respondents, 513 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (160 completed via text to web) and 288 respondents were drawn from a proprietary online panel (Cint). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the youngest person in the household. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample was obtained from ASDE and the cell phone sample was obtained from MSG. Interviews conducted online are excluded from the sample and final analysis if they fail any data quality attention check question. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Three questions were asked of online respondents including a honey-pot question to catch bots and two questions ask the respondent to follow explicit directions. The proprietary panel also incorporates measures that “safeguard against automated bot attacks, deduplication issues, fraudulent VPN usage, and suspicious IP addresses”. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes was weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York State’s population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, and gender to ensure representativeness. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of party registration using data from the New York State Board of Elections. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
