- Voters Say Hochul Better on Increasing Affordable Housing By 16 Points & Making Prices More Affordable by 7 Points; She Narrowly Leads on Keeping NYers Safe, Developing NY’s Energy Future & Addressing Undocumented Immigrants Living in NY
- On Each of 4 Character Traits, Blakeman’s Net Score Beats Hochul’s Net Score: ‘Tough,’ ‘In Touch with Average NYers,’ ‘Honest,’ and ‘Gets Things Done’
- NYS Attorney General: James 54% – Komatireddy 36%
- State Comptroller: DiNapoli 56% – Hernandez 32%
- Congressional Generic Ballot: Democrat 54% – Republican 38%
Loudonville, NY. Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul leads Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 49-39%, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State gubernatorial voters released today (Siena’s first poll of likely voters this cycle). In June, among registered voters, Hochul led Blakeman 52-32%. In other statewide races, Attorney General Letitia James (D) leads her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy (R), 54-36%, and State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 55-32%.
Likely voters say Hochul will do a better job than Blakeman increasing the supply of affordable housing, 51-35%. They say she will do a better job making prices more affordable for average New Yorkers, 48-41% and developing New York’s energy future, 47-42%. They are closely divided on keeping New Yorkers safe, Hochul 47-44%, and addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York, 45-44% Hochul.
Asked whether four character traits do or do not describe Blakeman and Hochul, likely voters say Blakeman is ‘tough’ by 25 points and Hochul by two points. They say Blakeman is ‘honest’ by five points and Hochul is not by two points, and Blakeman ‘gets things done’ by eight points and Hochul by five points. On being ‘in touch with average New Yorkers,’ Blakeman is underwater by four points and Hochul is underwater by 12 points.
“With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark. In June, among registered voters, Hochul’s lead was twice as large, 52-32%,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “At this point four years ago, August 2022, when Hochul was just finishing her first year as governor, she led her opponent, former Republican Congressman (and current EPA Administrator) Lee Zeldin by 14 points, 53-39%, before going on to ultimately win the election by six points, 53-47%.”
Hochul has a 46-49% favorability rating and a 48-49% job approval rating, while Blakeman has a 33-26% favorability rating, with 40% not knowing enough to have an opinion. By comparison, in August 2022, Hochul had a 46-41% favorability rating among likely voters.
“Not surprisingly, both candidates are holding on to their partisan bases, as Hochul leads among Democrats
80-8% and Blakeman leads among Republicans 84-9%. Likely independent voters favor Blakeman by a narrow five-point margin, 45-40%,” Greenberg said. “Hochul holds a commanding 64-19% lead in New York City, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, 49-41%. They are running virtually even in upstate, as well as among men and with white voters; Hochul has large leads with women, Latinos and Black voters.
“While Hochul has a 10-point lead, likely voters think she’ll do a better job than Blakeman on increasing affordable housing by 16 points. That’s the good news for Hochul. The bad news is that voters think she’s better than Blakeman on four other issues – affordability, energy, safety, and immigrants – by between only one and seven points,” Greenberg said. “Holding to form, Democrats overwhelmingly think Hochul will be better on all issues than Blakeman, and Republicans overwhelmingly think Blakeman will be better. Independents favor Hochul by nine points on housing, but favor Blakeman by between eight and 15 points on the other four issues.
“Yet again we see Democrats giving Hochul high marks and Blakeman low marks on all four character traits, and Republicans doing the opposite, giving Blakeman high marks and Hochul low marks,” Greenberg said. “While independents give Hochul negative ratings on all four traits, they overwhelmingly say Blakeman is tough and also say he gets things done. Independents are divided on whether Blakeman is honest or in touch; they score him better on both than they do Hochul.”
James Holds 18-Point, 54-36%, Lead Over Komatireddy in Race for AG
James has a 52-38% favorability rating, compared to 17-12% for Komatireddy. More than two-thirds of likely voters have either never heard of Komatireddy or don’t know enough to have an opinion. (In Siena’s surveys of registered voters, respondents are not given information about individuals before they are asked whether they view that person favorably or unfavorably. In this survey of likely voters, respondents were asked about the three statewide races – including candidates and their party affiliation – prior to the favorable/unfavorable questions.)
“James starts this election against a largely unknown challenger with a strong 18-point lead, garnering support from 87% of Democrats, while Komatireddy has the support of 79% of Republicans, and independents are virtually evenly divided. James has a better than three-to-one lead in New York City, to go along with an 8-point lead upstate; the downstate suburbs are closely divided,” Greenberg said. “James’ 52% favorable rating is the highest it’s ever been. Komatireddy has her work cut out for her in trying to become known to voters and then convincing them to support her.”
In Race for State Comptroller, DiNapoli Leads Hernandez by 23 Points, 55-32%
DiNapoli has a 42-18% favorability rating, with 40% not knowing enough to have an opinion. Hernandez’s favorability rating is 20-11, with 70% not knowing enough about him to have an opinion.
“As he nears 20 years as comptroller, and seeking election to a fifth full term, DiNapoli is in a commanding position with a 23-point, 55-32% lead over Hernandez. DiNapoli leads 83-5% among Democrats, picks up support from 23% of Republicans, and independents are nearly evenly divided,” Greenberg said. “DiNapoli adds to his 42-point lead in New York City with a 20-point lead upstate, and a seven-point lead in the downstate suburbs. Like in the AG’s race, DiNapoli has his highest ever favorability rating, while Hernandez is struggling to become known to the voters of the state.”
Odds & Ends
- By two-to-one, 52-25%, voters say New York’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers is the right decision, including 61% of Democrats, 51% of independents, and a plurality of Republicans, 40-27%. A majority of upstaters and downstaters say the ban is the right decision.
- Voters say the country’s best days are still ahead of us 48-39%. Republicans say the best days are ahead 55-34% and independents say so, 44-35%, while Democrats are closely divided, with 45% saying best days are ahead and 43% saying best days are behind. When it comes to New York’s best days, voters say 48-35% the state’s best days are ahead of us, but there is a wide partisan divide. Democrats say the state’s best days are ahead 63-18% but Republicans (54-34%) and independents (43-33%) say state’s best days are behind us.
- New Yorkers continue to say the country is headed in the wrong direction, rather than on the right track, 62-31%. Democrats and independents strongly believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, while Republicans strongly believe it is on the right track. Voters are more divided on the direction of the state, with 47% saying wrong direction and 43% saying right track. Democrats say the state is on the right track, 67-18%, however, 86% of Republicans and 55% of independents say the state is headed in the wrong direction.
- On the generic Congressional ballot, New York likely voters favor Democrats 54-38%. Not surprisingly, Democrats favor Democrats 88-6% and Republicans favor Republicans 83-11%, while by a small plurality, independents favor Republicans 45-40%.
- Likely voters give the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) a negative 30-47% favorability rating in the first time Siena has asked about the DSA. Democrats view the DSA favorably, 50-21%, while 82% of Republicans and 57% of independents have an unfavorable view of the DSA.
- In another first for Siena, voters were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of artificial intelligence (AI). Overall, voters give AI a negative 29-52% favorability rating. A majority of Democrats, joined by pluralities of Republicans and independents, share that negative view of AI.
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Methodology
This Siena University Poll was conducted August 3-6, 2026, among 811 New York Likely Voters. Of the 811 respondents, 523 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (288 completed via text to web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the voter listed on the voter file by name. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample was obtained from L2 Voter Database. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York’s population using data from the state voter file, on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=691), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. For the sample that answered the core questions (n=811), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute (SRI) powered by ReconMR is directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D. SRI conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
