- Voters – By 66-25%, Including 37% of Republicans – Think Hochul Will Win; Trump Endorsement of Blakeman is Negative for His Campaign, 51-30%; Mamdani Endorsement of Hochul is Positive for Her Campaign, 50-30%
- NYS Attorney General: James 52% Komatireddy 39% (54-36% in August)
- State Comptroller: DiNapoli 56% Hernandez 33% (55-32% in August)
- Congressional Ballot: Democrat 51% Republican 40% (54-38% in August)
- Voters Oppose Renaming Lake Ontario 74-19%; Oppose Large Data Centers in Their Area of the State 63-25%
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul (D) leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) in the race for governor 50-41%, little changed from 49-39% in August, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State voters released today. In other statewide races, Democratic Attorney General Letitia James leads her Republican challenger, Saritha Komatireddy, 52-39%, down a little from 54-36% last month, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli (D) leads Joseph Hernandez (R) 56-33%, virtually the same as August’s 55-32%.
While only half of likely voters say they are supporting Hochul, two-thirds of likely voters think Hochul will win, including 37% of Republicans. As for endorsements, voters say, 51-30% that President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman will be a negative for his campaign and, by a 50-30% margin, they say Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign. New Yorkers oppose Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America 74-19%, and they oppose new large data centers in their area of the state after the state’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers expires, 63-25%.
“With six weeks until election day, voters offer good news to both Hochul and Blakeman. She now has the support of 50% of voters and saw her favorability and job approval ratings edge into positive territory. He now trails by single digits – well, nine points – in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “At this time four years ago, Hochul led Lee Zeldin 17 points,54-37%, before going on to win by six points.
“Currently, Blakeman is doing a better job with Republicans, leading 88-8%, than Hochul is with Democrats, leading 81-11%. Additionally, Blakeman is holding onto a narrow lead among independents, 44-39%, nearly the same as last month, 45-40%,” Greenberg said. “Hochul has a dominant lead in New York City, 61-27%, and the two are running neck and neck in the downstate suburbs – Hochul 48-46% – and upstate, Blakeman 47-44%.”
Hochul’s favorability rating is 48-46%, up a little from 46-49% in August. Her job approval rating ticked up to 48-47%, from 48-49% last month. Blakeman has a 35-34% favorability rating, compared to 33-26% in August.
“Given a nine-point race, it might seem surprising that two-thirds of voters think Hochul will win. On the other hand, voters haven’t elected a Republican governor in 24 years, and there is that two-to-one Democratic enrollment edge, so it may not be surprising that more than one-third of Republicans think Hochul will win, as do 61% of independents, although only 39% of independents currently plan to vote for her,” Greenberg said.
“About half of likely voters think Trump endorsing Blakeman is a negative for Blakeman’s campaign, including 69% of Democrats, 49% of independents and 24% of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “On the other side, half of voters think Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul will be a positive for her campaign, including 72% of Democrats, 40% of independents, a plurality, and 22% of Republicans.
“Voters still give Hochul small leads – between four and nine points – on making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe, and addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state. In August, Hochul led Blakeman by between one and seven points on those three issues,” Greenberg said. “Voters say the five-year incumbent governor has the ‘right stuff to be governor’ by only 47-42%. Voters are evenly split, 40-40%, on the five-year Nassau County executive. Pluralities say both Hochul, 46-39%, and Blakeman, 41-35%, are not ‘in touch with average New Yorkers.’ Voters say Hochul ‘gets things done,’ 47-39%, but are divided on Blakeman, 35-34%.
James’ Lead Over Komatireddy in Race for AG Drops to 13 Points, 52-39%, Down from 18-Points
James’ favorability rating is 51-40%, slightly down from 52-38% last month. Komatireddy has a 17-12% favorability rating, exactly the same as last month, as more than two-thirds of likely voters continue to have either never heard of Komatireddy or don’t know enough to have an opinion.
“Both James and Komatireddy have the support of more than 80% of voters from their respective parties, and independents are leaning ever so slightly, 43-40%, toward James. While James has a large 62-26% lead in New York City, it’s down from 71-20% last month. James continues to have narrow leads upstate and in the downstate suburbs,” Greenberg said. “Unless Komatireddy can find a way to get more known to likely voters in the next few weeks, it appears that James is in a strong position heading into the home stretch of the campaign.”
DiNapoli Continues to Lead Hernandez by 23 Points, 56-33%, in Race for State Comptroller
DiNapoli has a 41-18% favorability rating, with 40% not knowing enough to have an opinion, little changed from 42-18-40% last month. Hernandez’s favorability rating is 16-9-71%, down a little from 20-11-70% in August.
“DiNapoli, the state’s longest serving and least known statewide elected official, appears to be cruising to re-election to a fifth full term as comptroller. He leads among Democrats, 81-8%, and independents, 48-34%, and even has the support of 21% of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “DiNapoli leads by 36 points in New York City, 23 points in the downstate suburbs, and 14 points upstate. Hernandez will need a Herculean effort and a bolt or two of lightning to change the dynamics of this race, which has not attracted a lot of attention from voters.”
Three-quarters of Voters Oppose Trump’s Renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America
“Overall, nearly three-quarters of voters, 74%, oppose Trump’s renaming of Lake Ontario as Lake America. While 93% of Democrats and 76% of independents oppose the renaming of Lake Ontario, a plurality of Republicans supports the Lake America renaming, 48-41%. It is strongly opposed upstate, 75-20%, and downstate, 76-18% in New York City and 70-20% in the downstate suburbs” Greenberg said.
Nearly Two-thirds of Voters Oppose New Large Data Centers in Their Area of the State
“When asked in August whether they thought Hochul’s one-year moratorium on new large data centers was the right or wrong policy for the state, by a two-to-one margin, 52-25%, voters said the moratorium was the right decision. Now, an even larger majority, 63-25%, say they don’t want a new large data center built in their area of the state next year, after the moratorium expires,” Greenberg said. “Three-quarters of Democrats and nearly two-thirds of independents are opposed, while Republicans are closely divided, narrowly supporting data centers in their area, 43-41%. At least 59% of voters from every region of the state oppose new data centers near them.”
November’s Election: Only 44% Say ‘Very Likely’ All Citizens Entitled to Vote will Be Able to Vote; Even Fewer, 32%, Say ‘Very Likely’ Votes Will Be Accurately Counted, with the Winners Certified
Only 44% of voters say it is very likely that all American citizens entitled to vote will be able to cast their ballot in November, with an additional 32% saying it is somewhat likely; only 20% say it is not very or not at all likely. Even fewer, 32% of likely voters, say it is very likely that election results will be accurately counted, with those receiving the most votes certified as winners, with another 41% saying it is somewhat likely; 23% say it is not very or not at all likely.
“While large majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents, upstaters and downstaters, men and women think it very or somewhat likely that all Americans entitled to vote will be able to vote, it is only majorities of Republicans, conservatives, Latinos, and Catholics that think it ‘very likely.’ And there is not a majority of any demographic group that thinks it is ‘very likely’ that candidates receiving the most votes will be certified as winners, although majorities of every demographic group think it is at least ‘somewhat likely,” Greenberg said.
“When it comes to Trump’s push to largely eliminate mail-in voting, New Yorkers disagree with Trump 59-39%. While Republicans strongly agree with Trump on eliminating mail-in voting, Democrats strongly disagree, and independents disagree 54-45%. Majorities of upstaters and downstaters, men and women, and white, Black and Latino voters disagree with Trump on mail-in ballots,” Greenberg said.
Odds & Ends
- On the generic Congressional ballot, likely voters favor Democrats 51-40%, down from 54-38% last month. Democrats continue to strongly favor Democrats, Republicans continue to strongly support Republicans, and independents continue to be closely divided. Neither party in Congress is viewed favorably by voters, who give Republicans in Congress a negative 32-62% favorability rating, and Democrats a negative 38-55%.
- Voters say the state is headed in the wrong direction (not the right track) 49-38%, up from 47-43% in August. An even larger majority, 66-28%, say the U.S. is headed in the wrong direction, up from 62-31% in August.
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is viewed favorably by 43% of voters and unfavorably by 44%. Last November, she had a 42-37% favorability rating. She is viewed favorably by 70% of Democrats and unfavorably by 82% of Republicans. Independents give her a negative 34-49% favorability rating.
- Trump has a 34-63% favorability rating, down from 38-60% in August. His job approval rating stands at 35-62%, down from 37-60% last month.
- Mamdani has 46-44% favorability rating, little changed from 47-44% last month. He remains very popular with Democrats, 73-18%, and is still two-to-one favorable in New York City, 60-31%.
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Methodology
This Siena University Poll was conducted September 11-17, 2026, among 1,144 New York Likely Voters. Of the 1,144 respondents, 652 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (492 completed via text to web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the voter listed on the voter file by name. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample was obtained from L2 Voter Database. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York’s population using data from the state voter file, on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. For the sample that answered the entire survey (n=991), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. For the sample that answered the core questions (n=1,144), it has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute (SRI) powered by ReconMR is directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D.. SRI conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
