- Congress: Gendebien (D) 46% Constantino (R) 42% Schmidt (I) 5% Undecided 8%
- Governor: Blakeman (R) 55% Hochul (D) 40%
- Congressional Control: Republicans 50% Democrats 45%
- Gendebien Viewed Favorably, 46-29%; Constantino Viewed Unfavorably, 39-52%
- On Affordability, Healthcare, Farmers, Internet, Canada, AI, Outmigration
- Likely Voters Say Gendebien Will Do a Better Job by Between 3 and 17 Points; On Undocumented Immigrants, Voters Say Constantino Will Be Better by 6 Points
Loudonville, NY. In the race to replace the retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik, Democrat Blake Gendebien leads Republican Anthony Constantino, 46-42%, with 5% for independent Christopher Schmidt and 8% still undecided, according to a new Times Union/WPTZ-NBC5/WAMC/Siena Poll of likely NY-21 voters released today. In the race for governor among likely NY-21 voters, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican, leads the incumbent Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, 55-40%, and by a 50-45% margin, likely voters in NY-21 would like to see Republicans control Congress after the election.
Constantino has a negative 39-52% favorability rating. Gendebien’s favorability rating is 46-29%, although 25% of voters have either never heard of Gendebien or don’t know enough about him to have an opinion. Among these NY-21 voters, Blakeman has a 48-30% favorability rating, and Hochul’s is 34-60%. Stefanik’s is 50-44%.
“Republican Stefanik has represented the district for more than a decade, although she replaced a three-term Democrat, former Rep. Bill Owens. Are North Country voters looking to replace Stefanik with a Democrat? Maybe. Gendebien holds a small four-point lead, 46-42%, thanks largely to independent voters, who favor Gendebien by 21 points, 51-30%,” Siena Research Institute Director Don Levy said. “Additionally, Gendebien is doing a much better job with Democrats, 85-10%, than Constantino is doing with Republicans, among whom he leads 65-21%. Constantino’s 10-point lead with men can’t overcome Gendebien’s 18-point lead with women.”
“A four-point lead for the Democrat needs to be put in perspective. First, Republicans significantly outnumber Democrats, 49-28%, among likely voters in the district. Second, by a five-point margin, 50-45%, voters want to see Republicans – not Democrats – control Congress after the election. Finally, Republican Blakeman leads Democrat Hochul by 15 points, nearly a 20-point swing from where these voters are in the race for Congress,” Levy said. “By any measure, a Gendebien victory, if he can pull it off, would certainly be seen as a major Democratic upset on Republican turf.”
“While Constantino is better known by more voters than Gendebien, it’s not in a good way. Constantino is viewed unfavorably by 86% of Democrats, 57% of independents and even 31% of Republicans; Gendebien is viewed unfavorably by 39% of Republicans, 29% of independents and only 12% of Democrats,” Levy said.
“On five issues voters say Gendebien will do a better job than Constantino by at least nine points: addressing relations with Canada (52-35%), making quality healthcare accessible (52-35%), supporting farmers and small businesses (53-39%), making prices more affordable (49-40%), and ensuring reliable high-speed internet and cell phone service (45-36%),” Levy said. “Gendebien holds smaller leads on regulating AI and ending outmigration. The only issue Constantino leads on is addressing undocumented immigrants (47-41%) by only six points.”
Voters say Gendebien is honest and trustworthy, 54-27%, in touch with average New Yorkers, 54-32%, will get things done, 48-33%, and has the right experience, 44-35%. They say Constantino will get things done, 46-41%, however, they say he is not honest, 35-52%, does not have the right experience, 39-49%, and is not in touch with average New Yorkers, 43-49%.
“Gendebien is viewed significantly more favorably than Constantino. Voters say Gendebien will do a better job than Constantino on several key issues. North Country New Yorkers think Gendebien is honest, in touch and will get things done, while they say Constantino is not honest, not in touch and doesn’t have the right experience,” Levy said. “The question almost becomes why isn’t Gendebien leading by more than four points? But we must remember that there are many more Republicans than Democrats, and that Blakeman at the top of the ticket has a 15-point lead over Hochul, the unpopular – at least in this district – Democratic incumbent.
“This is the time of year when voters complain about negative campaigning. Well, 58% of voters say Constantino is running a negative campaign, while by 49-38% they say Gendebien is running a positive campaign,” Levy said. “Positive or negative, both candidates and campaigns have their work cut out for them over the coming weeks because in a midterm election close races often come down to which campaign does a better job of getting their voters to the polls on or before election day.”
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Methodology
This Times Union/WPTZ-NBC5/WAMC/Siena Poll was conducted September 30 – October 6, 2026, among 496 NY CD21 Likely Voters. Of the 496 respondents, 308 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (188 completed via text-to-web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the voter listed on the voter file by name. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample was obtained from L2 Voter Database. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York’s population using data from the state voter file, on age, region, education, party registration, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points, including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute (SRI) powered by ReconMR is directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D. SRI conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
For more information, call Donald Levy, Ph.D. at (518) 944-0482. For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/
